As summer approaches, Egypt, other MENA countries, European nations and the United States face lost foreign currency inflows from tourism’s high-season as COVID-19 fears persist. For Egypt that is a significant problem as the sector employs one-tenth of Egyptians, generating $13 billion last year and accounts for 5 percent of GDP, as reported by The Economist in May. That drought could last until there is a mass-produced COVID-19 vaccine. “I think it is important to put this on the table: This virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities and this virus may never go away,” said Michael Ryan, executive…
Author: Tamer Hafez
“Designed in California. Assembled in China.” That phrase on the back of every iPhone shows just how integrated the world has become. An iconic American brand designed locally produced 11,500 kilometers (7,000 miles) away and shipped back to the United States is a testament to how the world has become a “small village.” However, the outbreak of COVID-19 and subsequent lockdowns, particularly in China, has raised alarms — nowhere more so than in Egypt, where the CBE says Chinese goods accounted for 9.4 percent of all imports last fiscal year. That is making local experts and government officials look to…
In Africa, healthcare statistics generally paint a grim picture. According to Mathieux Lamieux, a healthcare consultant who has worked with 22 African governments, the continent carries 24 percent of the global disease burden and 54 percent of its infectious diseases. Yet, it accounts for 14 percent of the world’s population and 2 percent of the physicians, he said in a TED talk. According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), “It would take 300 years and 10 times the expenditure of a typical African economy to have the same access to doctors per capita as developed economies.” However, one advantage of…
With economies collapsing worldwide, Airbnb raised $1 billion from Silver and Sixth Street Partners in April. However, the online lodging portal had to sweeten the deal with a 10 percent interest rate and guarantee investors could sell their stakes at a fixed price. And those investors valued Airbnb at half what it had been in 2017 when the company first raised cash. “Such generous terms [by Airbnb] would be unimaginable under normal conditions,” Bloomberg Opinion columnist Alex Webb wrote in the Economic Times in April. Webb noted such a trend would dominate the global venture capital scene in 2020 and…
The discovery of shale gas in 2014 was a wakeup call for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): The six nations realized they couldn’t dominate the energy market forever. GCC governments increased their oil output, which sent prices from an average of $93.60 per barrel in 2014 to $48.70 the following year. While the move served to eliminate new competitors, it also laid bare the fragility of GCC markets. “Between 2007 and 2014, revenue growth stopped, but spending grew at a much faster pace. That led to a severe decrease in savings in the region,” Tokhir Mirzoev, a senior economist at the…
Since taking office in 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump has been fixated on how to create jobs for more Americans primarily by fomenting a trade war with China in an attempt to bring back manufacturers like Apple, Levi Strauss & Co., Black & Decker and Mattel, maker of iconic Barbie dolls. Economic lockdowns across the world to limit the spread of COVID-19 will likely accelerate Trump’s plans, as nations look to insulate themselves from future catastrophes by being as self-sufficient as possible, regardless of cost. “There will be a rethink of how much any country wants to be reliant on…
With 10 years left to achieve the sustainability targets of Egypt’s Vision 2030, the government is preparing an all-new environment protection law. “We aim to create an easily implementable law that will combat all environmental challenges in a sustainable way,” said Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad at a press conference in March. The draft, according to Fouad, is being reviewed by “private sector manufacturers and other stakeholders. Feedback from producers, in particular, is vital for successful implementation of the law given that it directly affects every aspect of their business.” The Egyptian government could learn a lot from the United States…
In economics, a black swan is an unpredictably rare event with potentially severe consequences. Since it first appeared in December 2019, the Coronavirus has caused companies around the world to look for new ways to continue to do business as governments locked down their nations to curb the virus spread. Can Egyptian companies benefit from their experiences? For companies around the world, 2020 was supposed to be a promising year, tapping into new technologies to develop tools and services. First was the deployment of 5G networks and with it the internet of things. This year also might have been a…
Tourism has been doing well in Egypt. By the end of last year, revenue from visitors reached all-time highs thanks to major reforms led by then Minister of Tourism Rania Al Mashat. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) forecasts that the number of tourists will increase from 13 million in 2019 to more than 15 million in 2020. That would be an all-time high, up from 11.336 million arrivals in 2018, according to Trading Economics. “The minister’s choice of strong international media partners […] had such a great impact on the rise of the number of visitors to Egypt,”…
With the United States being Egypt’s second-biggest trade partner and the third-largest direct investor in Egypt, the health of U.S. economy has considerable influence on the Egyptian economy and its growth. As such, reports over the past few months from American think tanks and economists warning of an impending recession should raise red flags in Egypt. “There remains one significant and serious risk to emerging markets: a US recession,” wrote Barry Eichengreen, a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund, in the Guardian in December 2019. Such a recession may be accelerated by a potential corporate debt “bubble”…