For Egypt-based pharmaceutical producers, the global pharma market and supply chains are crucial for the industry’s future. From 2020 to 2024, the local pharmaceutical trade value (imports plus exports) increased by nearly 25%, according to Central Bank data, reaching almost $5 billion.

That trade volume will increase significantly by 2030 as the government aims to raise exports from $811 million in 2024 to $1.2 billion in 2025, $1.4 billion in 2026, and $3 billion by 2030. 

That will inevitably lead to more imports, as Egypt has been importing five to seven times more than it exports since 2020 (excluding 2021, when COVID-19 vaccine imports surged over 36%). Most of these imports were raw materials and semifinished products, given that local producers meet 91% of domestic demand.

With such dependence, pharmaceutical producers and government regulations must adapt to the latest international trends. This will likely be challenging, as “the global pharmaceutical market is often considered a stable one, with minor changes occurring over the years,” a paper from GMD Academy said. “However, this paradigm is rapidly changing.”

R&D diversity

The global pharmaceutical R&D landscape has been changing. “In recent years, clinical trial design has evolved significantly, with a rising focus on applying precision medicine to better serve specific patient groups by assessing therapy quality, efficacy, and safety,” noted Genedata, a pharma software developer, in a July paper. 

Those changes mean expanding R&D trials to include more ethnic groups to improve their effectiveness. For Egypt, this could be a benefit if local regulations pave the way for more pharma R&D investment. 

For existing players, increasingly diverse trials mean additional investment to stay competitive in R&D as markets increasingly see more advanced medicines.

WCG Clinical stressed that “diversity in clinical trials” is increasingly necessary, describing it as a “cornerstone of equitable research [where] increasing representation in trials is essential for delivering therapies that benefit all populations.” 

Global expansion

That diversity push is fueling “decentralized clinical trials (DCTs),” which enable pharmaceutical companies to expand their capabilities to innovate and enhance the diversity of test samples, Genedata noted. “Virtual clinical trials are a subset of DCTs.” 

Accordingly, potential trial locations need to “focus on site preparedness for future clinical trials,” noted WGC Clinical. That includes “infrastructure and training, and fostering trust, collaboration and team cohesion, [which are] emerging as differentiators in site performance and participant engagement.” 

For local companies to compete, they need to “improve trial efficiency, reduce costs, accelerate drug development [and] improve treatment personalization, while minimizing risks for patients,” said Alcimed, a consultancy. 

Regulatory adaptation

Increasingly diverse trials have “revived the interest of governments, healthcare providers, regulatory authorities and the industry in optimizing clinical outcomes,” Alcimed said. 

According to WCG Clinical, the resulting “regulatory innovation” has to “improve consistency, reduce redundancy and shorten study startup times, especially in multi-site trials, paving the way for greater collaboration and efficiency in trial governance.” 

These regulatory changes put Egyptian pharma regulators under increasing pressure to develop friendly regulations for international companies, align with what other governments are doing, and maintain local safety standards.

Pharmalex, a specialized consultancy, noted that this issue is already apparent within the EU, with one example being the “lack of alignment between the clinical trial regulation and medical devices regulation and in-vitro diagnostic medical devices regulation, all of which are new regulations.”

New technologies boon

The leading new technology in the pharmaceutical industry is artificial intelligence (AI). “Pharmaceutical laboratories are today increasingly adopting approaches based on AI for the research and development of new drugs,” noted Alcimed. 

According to a report by IQVIA, a think tank, the value of AI deals in dollars signed in 2023 was “more than double the total deals of 2022 and 2021.” Alcimed added, “Furthermore, as proof of the dynamism of this activity, the average value of deals has also greatly increased, reaching $98 million compared to $27 million for the three years 2022, 2021 and 2019.”

Alcamid also noted that “clinical development programs” are seeing AI “now reaching a stage of maturity, marked by an increase in the number of programs in advanced phases.” 

The proliferation of AI in pharmaceutical R&D comes from within the industry. “This evolution is largely driven by companies in the healthcare sector, whether they are startups or already well established,” said Alcimed. “They use AI and [machine learning] technology to exploit increasingly large sets of chemical, biological and patient data, thereby accelerating target selection and drug optimization throughout the discovery process.”

Critical risks arising

The increasing integration of AI in medical R&D also comes with risks. Some of which could, if unnoticed, waste research budgets on developing ineffective, or even harmful, drugs. 

Like most risks related to AI use, “bias” is a significant concern. “Development of medicines and vaccines is already affected by bias,” a paper from the World Health Organization (WHO) stated. “Clinical testing of investigational compounds often does not represent all potential patient populations according to race, ethnicity, gender, age and other characteristics.” Those shortcomings “are often replicated by AI technologies used in healthcare.” 

The second risk is safety, the WHO noted. “Patient safety can be endangered if the algorithms used in drug development are not tested for potential errors or for whether they provide, for example, false-positive or false-negative recommendations.”

Third is “explainability and transparency” as “researchers, regulators and healthcare providers may find ethical difficulty in relying on the use of AI for the development of medicines when decisions are made based on ‘black-box’ algorithms,” the WHO said. 

That only amplifies the “responsibility and accountability” challenge regarding who is held accountable for developing an ineffective or harmful medicine: the doctor who prompted the AI; the algorithm, which is learning and evolving; or the AI-powered tool developer.

Lastly, “privacy and informed consent” are growing concerns as more countries pass laws to protect citizens’ data, especially medical records. “The collection, analysis and use of health and other data are critical at each step in the use of AI in drug discovery, development and post-marketing commercialization,” the WHO report said. 

This puts multinational pharma companies under pressure to carefully navigate the legal landscape across different jurisdictions where they use AI tools.

The “Trump” factor

Since first taking office in 2016, U.S. President Donald Trump has called himself the “tariff man.” Now, in his second term (2025 to 2028), one of his main priorities has been imposing tariffs on pharmaceutical products to lower dependence on imports. 

However, his policy remains uncertain. In March, he threatened to impose a blanket 25% tariff on all pharmaceutical imports. In April, he stated that pharma products would be exempt, but not medical equipment. By early August, Trump threatened a 250% tariff, which later dropped to 200%. Additionally, he announced that EU-made pharmaceuticals would face 15% tariffs or less. 

Such threats create instability in the global pharmaceutical industry. “The trend toward pharmaceutical supply chain de-globalization is profoundly concerning. [Its] long-term consequences, including sustained disruption and erosion of international trust, could be profound and enduring,” said Yong Wu, associate professor in the Department of Management at Griffith Business School in Australia. 

Egypt, which has remained under Trump’s tariff radar, could benefit, as Wu noted, “diversifying production through international cooperation to establish manufacturing bases in multiple locations can prevent dangerous reliance on single-country sources.” 

Consequently, much will depend on how countries respond once U.S. tariffs are implemented. “Countries should remain committed to collaborative international frameworks,” Wu stressed. “Only through such collective efforts and rational policy-making can we ensure the stability of a medical supply chain.”