For Egypt, securing funding for environmental (green) projects is a priority. “Sustainable finance is a powerful tool that can be used to create balanced economic growth through transforming current threats into opportunities,” the Central Bank (CBE) said on its website.

That should make the annual U.N. Conference of the Parties (COP) meeting crucial for Egypt. “COP plays a pivotal role in mobilizing climate finance … encouraging developed countries to fulfill their commitments to support developing nations in their climate efforts,” said Prasad Gollakota, chief content and operating officer at xUnlocked, a climate consultancy.

However, at this year’s COP30 in November, more developing countries were increasingly vocal about their right to prioritize economic growth over long-term climate considerations. Meanwhile, wealthy nations were more hesitant to commit to financing environmental projects beyond their borders.

In November, The Economist said these narratives mean middle-income nations with environmental ambitions, such as Egypt, will likely only “make progress on any [climate] front under their own steam.”

How we got here

Environmental protection efforts were undermined after U.S. President Donald Trump announced America, the world’s second-biggest polluter, would accelerate fossil fuel extraction and freeze federal funding for nearly all green projects.

“This ‘climate change,’ it’s the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world,” Trump said during a September U.N. meeting. “All of these predictions made by the United Nations and many others … were wrong.”

Trump wants other governments to follow suit. He told UN attendees green transition efforts “have cost their countries fortunes and given those same countries no chance for success. If you don’t get away from this green scam, your country is going to fail … You need … traditional energy sources if you are going to be great again.”

Not surprisingly, the United States snubbed COP30. A White House statement said, “President Trump will not jeopardize our country’s economic and national security to pursue vague climate goals that are killing other countries.”

COP30’s outcomes

The United States’ views on environmental protection contributed to COP 30’s mixed outcomes. “The [conference’ s] decisions secured some important wins … but it omitted some of the big-ticket items many hoped to see,” the World Resource Institute (WRI), a climate research firm, said in a paper

In a major drawback, attendees agreed to delay climate adaptation financing from 2030 to 2035, although the amount would triple to $120 billion.

Another issue was that voluntary measures “nixed any mention of fossil fuels and failed to include a deforestation roadmap,” said Stefan Anderson, a reporter for Health Policy Watch, in November.

“The final decision only included new voluntary initiatives to accelerate national climate action,” said the WRI.  A case in point was the Brazilian presidency, COP 30′ s host, announcing it would implement unilateral measures to curb fossil fuel use and combat deforestation outside the formal COP talks.

However, some positives came from the event. “Negotiators … agreed for the first time to hold discussions on how trade policies can help or hinder climate action,” said the institute.

COP30 saw the launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility. The Baku-to-Belem Roadmap was also introduced, linking COP 29 to COP 30 outcomes and increasing financing through 2035. The Fostering Investible National Implementation initiative also launched at COP30. It will run for three years, targeting climate adaptation projects.

The conference also saw the launch of the Resilient Agriculture Investment for Net- Zero Land Degradation Accelerator, which funds the restoration of degraded farmland. The Global Climate Finance Accountability Framework aims to enhance transparency in climate finance.

Other initiatives include the Adaptation Financing Window for Africa, which funds adaptation projects in Africa; the Scaling J-REDD+ Coalition, which focuses on forest protection; and the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Belém Mission to 1.5, which assists countries in implementing their climate plans.

Topics for COP31

COP30 saw several developments that need to be readdressed at COP31. One is declining progress in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a periodic report each country gives the U.N. to demonstrate progress in mitigating climate change. Climate Watch Data, an aggregator, said NDCs “collectively delivered less than 15% of the emissions reductions needed by 2035 to keep global temperatures below 1.5 degrees.”

Another COP31 discussion point will be each nation’s progress in implementing the Global Goal on Adaptation objectives, “including establishing indicators to track progress,” the WRI said. At COP30, attendees agreed on 59 indicators. They cover seven sectors, including water, agriculture, and health, and align policy planning for finance, capacity building, and technology transfer.

The fate of the Loss and Damage Fund, introduced at COP27 to compensate vulnerable countries for climate-related damages, may be decided at COP31. According to the WRI, it “received little attention compared to previous COPs.”

Progress included “a new State of Loss and Damage Report, developed guidance to include Loss and Damage into national plans, and enhanced coherence within the Paris Agreement’s loss and damage agriculture,” the WRI said. “Parties also agreed on new guidance for the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage.”

This year’s COP featured a new concept of “connecting the climate regime to people’ s real lives,” the third president’s letter said. “It is essential that all negotiation tracks deliver outcomes … that connect climate ambition with people’ s everyday realities.”

This development will likely alter negotiations during COP31. For one, including “people’s everyday realities” alongside climate ambitions could mean excluding environmental targets not serving society’s immediate needs. These include “poverty eradication and alleviation, reduction of the inequality gap, [and] equity and justice. [These considerations] should underpin all work … and negotiation tracks,” the COP President’s letter said. “All agendas matter when the future is at stake.”

New-era COP

Mariana Cano, founder of 10 Billion Solutions, a climate consultancy, noted, “COP30 was the first in which the entire Paris Agreement had … been negotiated, as the implementation of … carbon markets was the last element under negotiation and had already been approved at COP29.”

Accordingly, COP31 would mark the start of “decisive … translation agreements into real and fair action,” said Cano. According to the Investor Group on Climate Change, a network of Australian and New Zealand institutional investors, “COP31 provides our best chance to accelerate global climate action.”

Another notable feature of COP31 is that Turkey will host the event, while Australia, which will include the Pacific Islands, will hold the presidency. “With sufficient goodwill, an Australia-Pacific-Turkey COP could break through the current inertia in climate diplomacy,” said ODI Global, a think tank. “Australia brings sophisticated negotiating capabilities [and] good working relationships with the developed countries bloc, with the potential to bridge internal schisms between leaders like the EU and laggards like Japan.”

The Pacific Islands bring a “sense of urgency to the climate negotiations, as the stalwart champions of 1.5ºC,” representing the Alliance of Small Island States, an intergovernmental organization.

Lastly, “Turkey is a bridge country in every sense,” noted ODI Global. “Geographically, it straddles east and west. Economically, it straddles the developed and developing countries. Politically, it has pragmatic if transactional working relationships within negotiating blocs [such as] the Africa Group of Negotiators, the Arab Group, and the Commonwealth of Independent States.”

However, the think tank warned, “Fragmented leadership will make it even more difficult to deliver a successful summit, particularly if Australia, Turkey, and the Pacific are not aligned in their priorities and approaches. [It] will take a real step up change in diplomatic effort and climate ambition for Australia, Turkey, and the Pacific to deliver on COP31.”