Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity surged to a five-year high in November 2025, snapping an eight-month streak of contraction. The S&P Global Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.1, up from 49.2 in October, crossing the 50.0 growth threshold for the first time since February.
Local surge vs. global cooling
The acceleration in Egypt comes at a notable moment for the global economy. While the J.P. Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index remained in expansion territory at 52.7 in November, it registered a slight dip from the previous month, driven by softening growth in emerging markets. Egypt’s rebound effectively defies this broader trend; while major emerging economies like India saw momentum cool, Egypt recorded its sharpest upturn in output and new orders since 2020.
A key driver of Egypt’s recovery has been a significant easing of inflationary pressures, aided by global dynamics. The global report noted that manufacturing price pressures worldwide remained “especially muted” in November. This global stability appears to have benefited Egyptian importers, who also cited a stronger Egyptian pound against the US dollar as a factor in reducing input costs to an eight-month low. This relief allowed local firms to limit price hikes, thereby stimulating fresh demand.
Alignment with GDP targets
The robust PMI reading aligns with official government data indicating a faster-than-expected recovery. S&P Global noted the 51.1 reading is consistent with an annual GDP growth rate exceeding 5%. This corroborates statements made by the Ministry of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, which confirmed a 5.3% GDP growth rate for the first quarter of the fiscal year, driven by a strategic pivot toward high-productivity sectors.
Domestically, the recovery was broad-based, with manufacturing, construction, and services all posting growth. However, mirroring the global “confidence gap”—where global business sentiment remains at three-year lows despite solid output—Egyptian firms remained cautious regarding the future. Despite the surge in new orders, local companies held employment levels steady, leading to a third consecutive month of rising backlogs.
